Ireland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 5
26 February 2006Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 5.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Denis Leamy+5.0
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Simon Best+5.9
- 18Mick O'Driscoll
- 19Johnny O'Connor
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21David Humphreys
- 22Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2T.Rhys Thomas
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Michael Owen(c)+2.1
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Dafydd James-9.4
- 12Matthew Watkins
- 13Hal Luscombe
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 19Gareth Delve
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21Gavin Henson+4.0
- 22Barry Davies
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.