New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 12
8 July 2006Jade Stadium (Lancaster Park), Christchurch
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 5 m
- Temperature
- 7.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-43.54194,172.65417 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Jason Eaton
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Mils Muliaina
- 14Rico Gear
- 15Leon MacDonald+1.6
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Greg Somerville+6.5
- 18Ali Williams+2.0
- 19Chris Masoe
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Luke McAlister
- 22Isaia Toeava+11.9
Australia
- 1Greg Holmes+9.7
- 2Tai McIsaac
- 3Guy Shepherdson
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 7George Smith
- 8Rocky Elsom
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Mat Rogers
- 13Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 14Mark Gerrard
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 16Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 17Al Baxter
- 18Scott Fava
- 19Phil Waugh
- 20Sam Cordingley-3.1
- 21Matt Giteau+3.8
- 22Ben Tune-0.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.