New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 27
19 August 2006Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 05:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 11.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Jason Eaton
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Luke McAlister
- 13Isaia Toeava+11.9
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Greg Somerville+6.5
- 18Ali Williams+2.0
- 19Chris Masoe
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Sam Tuitupou
- 22Leon MacDonald+1.6
Australia
- 1Greg Holmes+9.7
- 2Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 3Rodney Blake
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7Phil Waugh
- 8Wycliff Palu+4.3
- 9George Gregan(c)
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Lote Tuqiri
- 12Matt Giteau+3.8
- 13Stirling Mortlock+4.4
- 14Clyde Rathbone
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.