South Africa v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 20
2 September 2006Olympia Park, Rustenburg
What the model says about South Africa v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1176 m
- Temperature
- 14.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3BJ Botha
- 4Johann Muller+4.2
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Pierre Spies-4.0
- 7AJ Venter
- 8Pedrie Wannenburg
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Wynand Olivier-9.2
- 14Akona Ndungane
- 15Jaque Fourie+6.3
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17Lawrence Sephaka
- 18Albert van den Berg-6.0
- 19Jacques Cronje
- 20Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 21Butch James+0.9
- 22Breyton Paulse-2.6
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Mils Muliaina
- 14Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 15Doug Howlett-3.2
Replacements
- 16Anton Oliver-0.3
- 17Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 18Jason Eaton
- 19Marty Holah-0.8
- 20Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 21Luke McAlister
- 22Rico Gear
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.