Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 20
10 March 2007Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 11.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 3Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 11Matteo Pratichetti
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15Roland de Marigny
Replacements
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Chris Horsman
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Alix Popham+1.5
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones+7.9
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones(c)+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12James Hook-12.6
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16T.Rhys Thomas
- 17Duncan Jones+0.8
- 18Adam Jones-6.2
- 19Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 20Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 21Mike Phillips
- 22Gareth Thomas+5.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.