New Zealand v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 20
6 October 2007Principality Stadium, Cardiff · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v France
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 12.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Carl Hayman-10.3
- 4Keith Robinson
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerry Collins
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Luke McAlister
- 13Mils Muliaina
- 14Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 15Leon MacDonald+1.6
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 18Chris Jack
- 19Chris Masoe
- 20Brendon Leonard
- 21Nick Evans
- 22Isaia Toeava+11.9
France
- 1Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Fabien Pelous+1.3
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 11Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13David Marty+6.7
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Damien Traille+3.1
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 18Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 19Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 20Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 21Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 22Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 77.0% | Possession | 23.0% |
| 80.0% | Territory | 20.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 620m | Carry metres | 334m |
| 21 | Defenders beaten | 6 |
| 22 | Offloads | 5 |
| 153 | Passes | 59 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 44 | Tackles made | 205 |
| 6 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 21 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 11 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 68.8% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 150 | Rucks won | 28 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 6 |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.