France v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 14
13 October 2007Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v England
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 13.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Olivier Milloud-7.6
- 2Raphael Ibanez(c)-4.5
- 3Pieter de Villiers-5.0
- 4Fabien Pelous+1.3
- 5Jerome Thion-2.8
- 6Serge Betsen Tchoua+7.0
- 7Thierry Dusautoir-3.4
- 8Julien Bonnaire
- 9Jean-Baptiste Elissalde+1.3
- 10Lionel Beauxis+3.4
- 11Cedric Heymans-0.6
- 12Yannick Jauzion+9.9
- 13David Marty+6.7
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Damien Traille+3.1
Replacements
- 16Dimitri Szarzewski-0.3
- 17Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 18Sebastien Chabal-2.5
- 19Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 20Frederic Michalak+2.7
- 21Christophe Dominici-5.2
- 22Clement Poitrenaud-1.3
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Mark Regan+1.8
- 3Phil Vickery(c)+2.7
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Martin Corry-6.2
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Josh Lewsey
- 12Mike Catt+2.3
- 13Mathew Tait+7.9
- 14Paul Sackey
- 15Jason Robinson+5.5
Replacements
- 16George Chuter
- 17Matt Stevens-0.0
- 18Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Peter Richards
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Dan Hipkiss
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 317m | Carry metres | 343m |
| 8 | Defenders beaten | 8 |
| 7 | Offloads | 3 |
| 114 | Passes | 92 |
Defence
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 113 | Tackles made | 109 |
| 8 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 86.4% | Lineout success | 92.9% |
| 19 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | Rucks won | 71 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 4 |
Discipline
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.