Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 15
9 February 2008Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 5.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Duncan Jones+0.8
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10James Hook-12.6
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Gavin Henson+4.0
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Jamie Roberts
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Matthew Rees-8.1
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Deiniol Jones
- 19Gareth Delve
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Sonny Parker
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Jason White(c)+12.3
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Kelly Brown+3.1
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Chris Paterson+1.8
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Nick de Luca
- 14Nikki Walker
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Fergus Thomson
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Scott Macleod
- 19Ally Hogg
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 22Simon Danielli+0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.