Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 13
23 February 2008Croke Park, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 10.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Bernard Jackman
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Mick O'Driscoll
- 6Denis Leamy+5.0
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Rob Kearney+2.0
- 12Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Tony Buckley
- 18Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 19Simon Easterby-7.8
- 20Peter Stringer+11.4
- 21Paddy Wallace
- 22Shane Horgan+5.3
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Scott Macleod
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7Ally Hogg
- 8Kelly Brown+3.1
- 9Mike Blair(c)+4.5
- 10Chris Paterson+1.8
- 11Nikki Walker
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Simon Webster+9.7
- 14Rory Lamont+0.8
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Fergus Thomson
- 17Gavin Kerr
- 18Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 19Ross Rennie
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Nick de Luca
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.