England v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 10
15 March 2008Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 10.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.4 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Lee Mears+2.3
- 3Phil Vickery(c)+2.7
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 6Tom Croft-2.9
- 7Michael Lipman
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 10Danny Cipriani
- 11Lesley Vainikolo
- 12Toby Flood-1.2
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Paul Sackey
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16George Chuter
- 17Matt Stevens-0.0
- 18Ben Kay+9.1
- 19James Haskell+0.9
- 20Paul Hodgson
- 21Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Rory Best
- 3John Hayes
- 4Donncha O'Callaghan
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Denis Leamy+5.0
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 10Ronan O'Gara(c)
- 11Rob Kearney+2.0
- 12Shane Horgan+5.3
- 13Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Bernard Jackman
- 17Tony Buckley
- 18Mick O'Driscoll
- 19Simon Easterby-7.8
- 20Peter Stringer+11.4
- 21Paddy Wallace
- 22Luke Fitzgerald-5.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.