New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 8
5 July 2008Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 6.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.5 mm
- Wind
- 49 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Adam Thomson+2.1
- 7Rodney So'oialo(c)+1.2
- 8Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 9Andrew Ellis
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Rudi Wulf
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 18Anthony Boric
- 19Sione Lauaki
- 20Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 21Stephen Donald
- 22Leon MacDonald+1.6
South Africa
- 1Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Joe van Niekerk+1.8
- 9Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Adrian Jacobs-2.7
- 14Odwa Ndungane
- 15Conrad Jantjes
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17Brian Mujati
- 18Andries Bekker+0.8
- 19Luke Watson
- 20Bolla Conradie
- 21Francois Steyn+7.8
- 22Percy Montgomery+0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.