Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 26
8 February 2009Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- -4.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.5 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Jason White+12.3
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Ally Hogg
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair(c)+4.5
- 10Phil Godman
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Graeme Morrison+2.7
- 13Ben Cairns
- 14Simon Webster+9.7
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Dougie Hall-1.1
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Kelly Brown+3.1
- 19Scott Gray
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Chris Paterson+1.8
- 22Max Evans
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 7Martyn Williams(c)+5.7
- 8Andy Powell
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Luke Charteris+2.1
- 19Bradley Davies+0.8
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21James Hook-12.6
- 22Andrew Bishop
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.