Wales v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 15
14 February 2009Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v England
- Kick-off
- 17:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ian Gough-3.3
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Andy Powell
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Mark Jones-1.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Luke Charteris+2.1
- 19Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21James Hook-12.6
- 22Andrew Bishop
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Lee Mears+2.3
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Steve Borthwick(c)-11.3
- 5Nick Kennedy
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Joe Worsley+4.0
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Andy Goode
- 11Mark Cueto+0.8
- 12Riki Flutey
- 13Mike Tindall+3.5
- 14Paul Sackey
- 15Delon Armitage
Replacements
- 16Dylan Hartley
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Tom Croft-2.9
- 19Luke Narraway
- 20Paul Hodgson
- 21Toby Flood-1.2
- 22Mathew Tait+7.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.