New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 32
12 September 2009FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 13.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.6 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Isaac Ross
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Sitiveni Sivivatu-9.3
- 12Stephen Donald
- 13Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 14Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Aled de Malmanche
- 17John Afoa-1.5
- 18Adam Thomson+2.1
- 19Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 20Brendon Leonard
- 21Isaia Toeava+11.9
- 22Cory Jane-1.3
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 3John Smit(c)+6.0
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Heinrich Brussow+4.9
- 7Schalk Burger+6.0
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14Odwa Ndungane
- 15Francois Steyn+7.8
Replacements
- 16Chiliboy Ralepelle-1.3
- 17Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 18Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 19Ryan Kankowski
- 20Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 21Adrian Jacobs-2.7
- 22Ruan Pienaar+0.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.