Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 10
20 March 2010Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 9.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 11.4 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Luke Charteris+2.1
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Sam Warburton
- 8Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13James Hook-12.6
- 14Tom Prydie
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Huw Bennett+2.9
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Ian Gough-3.3
- 19Gareth Delve
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Andrew Bishop
- 22Tom Shanklin+12.6
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini(c)-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 9Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 10Craig Gower
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Kaine Robertson-1.3
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 17Matias Aguero+1.9
- 18Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 19Manoa Vosawai
- 20Tito Tebaldi
- 21Riccardo Bocchino
- 22Matteo Pratichetti
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.