Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
6 – 24
12 February 2011Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 17:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 4.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.3 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Alastair Kellock(c)+2.2
- 6Kelly Brown+3.1
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Richie Vernon
- 9Rory Lawson-3.0
- 10Dan Parks+4.1
- 11Max Evans
- 12Nick de Luca
- 13Joe Ansbro
- 14Nikki Walker
- 15Hugo Southwell
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Moray Low-1.2
- 18Scott Macleod
- 19Ross Rennie
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 22Sean Lamont+5.6
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Matthew Rees(c)-8.1
- 3Craig Mitchell
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton
- 8Ryan Jones+7.9
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10James Hook-12.6
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 13Jamie Roberts
- 14Morgan Stoddart
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 19Josh Turnbull
- 20Tavis Knoyle
- 21Stephen Jones+0.2
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.