Italy v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 24
26 February 2011Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 4.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Quintin Geldenhuys
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Fabio Semenzato
- 10Kris Burton
- 11Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 12Alberto Sgarbi
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Andrea Masi-5.0
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 19Manoa Vosawai
- 20Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 21Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 22Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Matthew Rees(c)-8.1
- 3Craig Mitchell
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton
- 8Ryan Jones+7.9
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13James Hook-12.6
- 14Morgan Stoddart
- 15Lee Byrne+0.7
Replacements
- 16Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 17John Yapp+5.6
- 18Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 19Josh Turnbull
- 20Tavis Knoyle
- 21Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 22Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.