South Africa v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 16
11 September 2011Hnry Stadium, Wellington · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Wales
- Kick-off
- 08:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 11.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.9 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Heinrich Brussow+4.9
- 7Schalk Burger+6.0
- 8Pierre Spies-4.0
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Morne Steyn-3.6
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Francois Steyn+7.8
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17Gurthro Steenkamp+1.9
- 18CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 19Johann Muller+4.2
- 20Willem Alberts+10.1
- 21Francois Hougaard-2.5
- 22Butch James+0.9
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15James Hook-12.6
Replacements
- 16Lloyd Burns
- 17Ryan Bevington
- 18Bradley Davies+0.8
- 19Andy Powell
- 20Tavis Knoyle
- 21Scott Williams+3.8
- 22Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 41.0% | Possession | 59.0% |
| 37.0% | Territory | 63.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 268m | Carry metres | 372m |
| 8 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 126 | Passes | 158 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 141 | Tackles made | 107 |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 8 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 81.8% | Lineout success | 93.8% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 29 | Scrums won | 31 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 72 | Rucks won | 110 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 5 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.