New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 6
16 October 2011Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 08:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 13.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Piri Weepu-4.9
- 10Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 11Richard Kahui
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Ali Williams+2.0
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Andrew Ellis
- 21Stephen Donald
- 22Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
Australia
- 1Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Dan Vickerman-0.6
- 5James Horwill(c)+1.4
- 6Rocky Elsom
- 7David Pocock+0.9
- 8Radike Samo-1.7
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Digby Ioane
- 12Pat McCabe
- 13Anthony Fainga'a
- 14James O'Connor-0.2
- 15Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Rob Simmons-1.5
- 19Ben McCalman+5.9
- 20Luke Burgess
- 21Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 22Rob Horne-3.3
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 256m | Carry metres | 377m |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 111 | Passes | 125 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 129 | Tackles made | 115 |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 92.3% | Lineout success | 94.1% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 16 |
| 33 | Scrums won | 27 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | Rucks won | 81 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 3 |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.