Italy v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
15 – 19
11 February 2012Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v England
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 1.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.2 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Robert Barbieri-5.8
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Kris Burton
- 11Luke McLean
- 12Gonzalo Canale
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Tommaso d'Apice
- 17Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 18Antonio Pavanello
- 19Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 20Fabio Semenzato
- 21Tobie Botes
- 22Luca Morisi+0.0
England
- 1Alex Corbisiero
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Mouritz Botha
- 5Tom Palmer+2.1
- 6Tom Croft-2.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Phil Dowson
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 11David Strettle
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Brad Barritt-4.9
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Rob Webber
- 17Matt Stevens-0.0
- 18Geoff Parling-5.6
- 19Ben Morgan
- 20Lee Dickson
- 21Jordan Turner-Hall
- 22Mike Brown
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.