Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 13
12 February 2012Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 3.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Huw Bennett+2.9
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Paul James-6.0
- 18Lou Reed
- 19Andy Powell
- 20Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 21James Hook-12.6
- 22Scott Williams+3.8
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford(c)
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Alasdair Strokosch+1.8
- 7Ross Rennie
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 10Greig Laidlaw
- 11Max Evans
- 12Sean Lamont+5.6
- 13Nick de Luca
- 14Lee Jones
- 15Rory Lamont+0.8
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Ed Kalman
- 18Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 19John Barclay-0.6
- 20Mike Blair+4.5
- 21Duncan Weir-1.7
- 22Stuart Hogg
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.