New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 0
25 August 2012Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 12.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Luke Romano+1.2
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Liam Messam+1.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Hosea Gear
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 14Cory Jane-1.3
- 15Israel Dagg-2.1
Replacements
- 16Andrew Hore-5.4
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Piri Weepu-4.9
- 21Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 22Ben Smith-1.6
Australia
- 1Benn Robinson-6.6
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Ben Alexander-3.4
- 4Sitaleki Timani
- 5Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 6Dave Dennis
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8Scott Higginbotham-1.6
- 9Will Genia(c)+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Digby Ioane
- 12Berrick Barnes+6.4
- 13Rob Horne-3.3
- 14Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 15Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
Replacements
- 16Saia Fainga'a-3.7
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Radike Samo-1.7
- 19Liam Gill
- 20Nick Phipps-0.5
- 21Anthony Fainga'a
- 22Kurtley Beale+3.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | — |
| 1 | Conversions | — |
| 5 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.