Scotland v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 10
9 February 2013Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 3.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.3 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Rob Harley
- 7Kelly Brown(c)+3.1
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Sean Lamont+5.6
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Pat MacArthur
- 17Moray Low-1.2
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 20David Denton-0.1
- 21Henry Pyrgos
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Max Evans
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini-0.2
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Francesco Minto
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Simone Favaro+10.6
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Tobie Botes
- 10Luciano Orquera-7.2
- 11Luke McLean
- 12Gonzalo Canale
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Alberto de Marchi
- 18Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 19Antonio Pavanello
- 20Paul Derbyshire-1.1
- 21Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 22Kris Burton
- 23Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.