Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 28
9 March 2013Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 2.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.6 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Euan Murray+2.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Rob Harley
- 7Kelly Brown(c)+3.1
- 8Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Duncan Weir-1.7
- 11Tim Visser+1.5
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Sean Lamont+5.6
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Dougie Hall-1.1
- 17Moray Low-1.2
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Alastair Kellock+2.2
- 20Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 21Henry Pyrgos
- 22Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 23Max Evans
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Richard Hibbard-2.4
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Ryan Jones(c)+7.9
- 7Sam Warburton
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Mike Phillips
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11George North+8.6
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Ryan Bevington
- 18Scott Andrews
- 19Andrew Coombs
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22James Hook-12.6
- 23Scott Williams+3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 1 |
| — | Conversions | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 7 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.