Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 6
2 February 2014Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 6.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 34 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Rory Best
- 3Mike Ross
- 4Devin Toner+4.4
- 5Dan Tuohy
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Chris Henry
- 8Jamie Heaslip(c)
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Dave Kearney
- 12Luke Marshall
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Jack McGrath
- 18Marty Moore
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Tommy O'Donnell
- 21Isaac Boss
- 22Paddy Jackson
- 23Fergus McFadden+2.9
Scotland
- 1Ryan Grant
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Moray Low-1.2
- 4Tim Swinson
- 5Jim Hamilton-3.9
- 6Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 7Kelly Brown(c)+3.1
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Duncan Weir-1.7
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Duncan Taylor
- 13Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Pat MacArthur
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Geoff Cross-3.7
- 19Richie Gray-0.1
- 20Johnnie Beattie+2.0
- 21Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 22Matt Scott-5.4
- 23Max Evans
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.