New Zealand v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 16
20 September 2015Wembley Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 13.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Richie McCaw(c)+1.0
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Nehe Milner-Skudder
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Victor Vito+4.4
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
Argentina
- 1Marcos Ayerza+10.6
- 2Agustin Creevy(c)+2.4
- 3Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Tomas Lavanini-0.6
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
- 8Leonardo Senatore+4.8
- 9Tomas Cubelli+7.3
- 10Nicolas Sanchez+2.9
- 11Juan Imhoff+8.0
- 12Juan Martin Hernandez+0.3
- 13Marcelo Bosch
- 14Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 15Joaquin Tuculet+5.9
Replacements
- 16Julián Montoya
- 17Lucas Noguera Paz
- 18Ramiro Herrera-3.7
- 19Mariano Galarza+8.5
- 20Juan Manuel Leguizamon+1.3
- 21Martin Landajo
- 22Jeronimo de la Fuente+6.6
- 23Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | Possession | 42.0% |
| 69.0% | Territory | 31.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 543m | Carry metres | 366m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 36 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 20 | Offloads | 6 |
| 233 | Passes | 141 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Tackles made | 133 |
| 85.0% | Tackle success | 79.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 36 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 94.7% | Lineout success | 90.9% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 105 | Rucks won | 77 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Kicks from hand | 39 |
| 373m | Kick metres | 687m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.