England v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
25 – 28
26 September 2015Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Wales
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 12.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Tom Youngs
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Geoff Parling-5.6
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Tom Wood+0.3
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Owen Farrell+1.1
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Sam Burgess
- 13Brad Barritt-4.9
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Mike Brown
Replacements
- 16Rob Webber
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Kieran Brookes
- 19Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 20James Haskell+0.9
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Alex Goode-2.4
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Sam Warburton(c)
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Hallam Amos
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Scott Williams+3.8
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Aaron Jarvis
- 18Samson Lee
- 19Luke Charteris+2.1
- 20Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23Alex Cuthbert+0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 468m | Carry metres | 387m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 16 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 6 | Offloads | 4 |
| 98 | Passes | 111 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 104 | Tackles made | 106 |
| 85.0% | Tackle success | 87.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 91.7% | Lineout success | 76.9% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | Rucks won | 77 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 44 | Kicks from hand | 40 |
| 408m | Kick metres | 597m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 7 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.