Ireland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 16
7 February 2016Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 5.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.2 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 47 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best(c)
- 3Nathan White
- 4Mike McCarthy
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6CJ Stander
- 7Tommy O'Donnell
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton+5.2
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 15Simon Zebo-1.2
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17James Cronin
- 18Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 19Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 20Rhys Ruddock
- 21Kieran Marmion
- 22Ian Madigan
- 23Dave Kearney
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Sam Warburton
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Tom James
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Bradley Davies+0.8
- 20Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23Alex Cuthbert+0.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.