Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 23
13 February 2016Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:50 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.3 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Luke Charteris+2.1
- 5Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 6Sam Warburton
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Tom James
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Bradley Davies+0.8
- 20Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 21Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23Gareth Anscombe+3.7
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6John Barclay-0.6
- 7John Hardie
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Sean Lamont+5.6
- 12Duncan Taylor
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Tommy Seymour
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Stuart McInally-3.8
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Blair Cowan
- 21Sam Hidalgo-Clyne
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.