Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
67 – 14
19 March 2016Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 14:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 5.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rob Evans+7.5
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Luke Charteris+2.1
- 6Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Rhys Webb+1.9
- 10Dan Biggar+0.4
- 11Hallam Amos
- 12Jamie Roberts
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14George North+8.6
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Aaron Jarvis
- 19Jake Ball+1.0
- 20Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 23Gareth Anscombe+3.7
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Davide Giazzon
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Valerio Bernabo0.0
- 6Francesco Minto
- 7Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Andrea Pratichetti
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15David Odiete
Replacements
- 16Oliviero Fabiani
- 17Matteo Zanusso
- 18Dario Chistolini
- 19Jacopo Sarto
- 20Braam Steyn+4.4
- 21Alberto Lucchese
- 22Kelly Haimona
- 23Luke McLean
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 2 |
| 8 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.