New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 9
27 August 2016Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 10.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.7 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Julian Savea
- 12Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 13Malakai Fekitoa
- 14Israel Dagg-2.1
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16James Parsons
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Charlie Faumuina
- 19Liam Squire
- 20Ardie Savea-6.0
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Aaron Cruden+1.7
- 23Seta Tamanivalu
Australia
- 1Scott Sio+1.4
- 2Stephen Moore+5.5
- 3Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 4Kane Douglas-3.4
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Scott Fardy
- 7Michael Hooper+1.0
- 8David Pocock+0.9
- 9Will Genia+2.0
- 10Quade Cooper+4.9
- 11Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
- 12Bernard Foley-0.8
- 13Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 14Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 15Israel Folau
Replacements
- 16Tatafu Polota-Nau+1.2
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Will Skelton+6.1
- 20Dean Mumm+2.1
- 21Nick Phipps-0.5
- 22Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 23Reece Hodge
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.