Scotland v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 22
4 February 2017Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:25 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 3.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.3 mm
- Wind
- 29 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Dell-3.1
- 2Fraser Brown-1.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 7Hamish Watson-1.1
- 8Josh Strauss+6.2
- 9Greig Laidlaw
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tommy Seymour
- 12Alex Dunbar-9.8
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Ross Ford
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20John Barclay-0.6
- 21Ali Price-11.2
- 22Duncan Weir-1.7
- 23Mark Bennett-0.3
Ireland
- 1Jack McGrath
- 2Rory Best
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6CJ Stander
- 7Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 8Jamie Heaslip
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Paddy Jackson
- 11Simon Zebo-1.2
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Niall Scannell
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18John Ryan
- 19Ultan Dillane
- 20Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 21Kieran Marmion
- 22Ian Keatley
- 23Tommy Bowe-3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.