England v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 7
26 October 2019International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama · neutral venue
What the model says about England v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 08:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 15 m
- Temperature
- 18.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
35.50999,139.60638 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 40 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19George Kruis+4.6
- 20Mark Wilson
- 21Willi Heinz
- 22Henry Slade0.0
- 23Jonathan Joseph-0.5
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Scott Barrett+2.6
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Kieran Read(c)-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11George Bridge
- 12Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 13Jack Goodhue
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Angus Ta'avao
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Sam Cane+0.2
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 23Jordie Barrett+6.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 406m | Carry metres | 639m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 12 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 34 |
| 8 | Offloads | 15 |
| 184 | Passes | 211 |
Defence
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 147 | Tackles made | 164 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 89.0% |
| 34 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 15 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 81.8% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Rucks won | 89 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 873m | Kick metres | 624m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.