New Zealand v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 17
1 November 2019Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Wales
- Kick-off
- 09:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 66 m
- Temperature
- 15.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Scott Barrett+2.6
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read(c)-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Ryan Crotty+8.7
- 14Ben Smith-1.6
- 15Beauden Barrett-1.1
Replacements
- 16Liam Coltman
- 17Atu Moli
- 18Angus Ta'avao
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Matt Todd
- 21Brad Weber
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Jordie Barrett+6.6
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Ken Owens+2.8
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Adam Beard+1.0
- 5Alun Wyn Jones(c)-0.4
- 6Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 7James Davies
- 8Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Rhys Patchell
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Owen Watkin-4.4
- 13Jonathan Davies+5.6
- 14Owen Lane
- 15Hallam Amos
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Wyn Jones+0.5
- 19Jake Ball+1.0
- 20Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 21Gareth Davies+1.8
- 22Dan Biggar+0.4
- 23Hadleigh Parkes
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 39.0% | Possession | 61.0% |
| 39.0% | Territory | 61.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 580m | Carry metres | 412m |
| 21 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 34 | Defenders beaten | 24 |
| 12 | Offloads | 14 |
| 144 | Passes | 201 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 206 | Tackles made | 115 |
| 90.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 24 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 34 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 84.6% | Lineout success | 90.0% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 78 | Rucks won | 137 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 19 |
| 505m | Kick metres | 594m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 4 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.