Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
32 – 18
20 March 2021Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 9.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 2Rob Herring+3.4
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Iain Henderson-1.4
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6CJ Stander
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Conor Murray-1.4
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Keith Earls-4.9
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Andrew Porter
- 19Ryan Baird-0.9
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 22Ross Byrne
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 6Mark Wilson
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 13Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Jonny Hill
- 20Ben Earl+3.7
- 21George Martin+7.1
- 22Dan Robson
- 23Joe Marchant
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 6 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.