New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
57 – 22
14 August 2021Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 12.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1George Bower+1.1
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock(c)+3.0
- 6Akira Ioane
- 7Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Richie Mo'unga+7.0
- 11Sevu Reece-4.1
- 12David Havili+0.9
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Karl Tu'inukuafe
- 18Angus Ta'avao
- 19Scott Barrett+2.6
- 20Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 21TJ Perenara-8.3
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Jordie Barrett+6.6
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Darcy Swain
- 5Matt Philip
- 6Lachlan Swinton
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Tate McDermott+4.9
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Marika Koroibete
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Banks
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17Scott Sio+1.4
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 20Harry Wilson+1.1
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Len Ikitau+2.7
- 23Reece Hodge
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 3 |
| 7 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.