South Africa v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
59 – 7
9 September 2007Parc des Princes, Paris · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 16.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2John Smit(c)+6.0
- 3CJ van der Linde-5.3
- 4Bakkies Botha+8.0
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Schalk Burger+6.0
- 7Juan Smith+0.6
- 8Danie Rossouw+0.7
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Butch James+0.9
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Jean de Villiers+0.5
- 13Jaque Fourie+6.3
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Bismarck du Plessis+4.3
- 17BJ Botha
- 18Johann Muller+4.2
- 19Wikus van Heerden
- 20Ricky Januarie-1.8
- 21Andre Pretorius-0.7
- 22Francois Steyn+7.8
Samoa
- 1Justin Va'a
- 2Mo Schwalger
- 3Census Johnston
- 4Joe Tekori
- 5Kane Thompson
- 6Dan Leo
- 7Semo Sititi(c)
- 8Henry Tuilagi
- 9Junior Poluleuligaga
- 10Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu
- 11Alesana Tuilagi
- 12Jerry Meafou
- 13Gavin Williams
- 14Lome Fa'atau
- 15David Lemi
Replacements
- 16Tani Fuga
- 17Kas Lealamanu'a
- 18Alfie To'oala Vaeluaga
- 19Justin Purdie
- 20Elvis Seveali'i
- 21Loki Crichton
- 22Brian Lima
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | Possession | 43.0% |
| 62.0% | Territory | 38.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 652m | Carry metres | 378m |
| 13 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 8 | Offloads | 7 |
| 135 | Passes | 87 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 71 | Tackles made | 68 |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | 46.7% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 20 | Scrums won | 12 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 49 | Rucks won | 46 |
| 6 | Mauls won | — |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.