New Zealand v Portugal
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
108 – 13
15 September 2007Matmut Stadium de Gerland, Lyon · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Portugal
- Kick-off
- 11:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 172 m
- Temperature
- 18.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Neemia Tialata+7.7
- 2Andrew Hore-5.4
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Chris Jack
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerry Collins(c)
- 7Chris Masoe
- 8Sione Lauaki
- 9Brendon Leonard
- 10Nick Evans
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Isaia Toeava+11.9
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Anton Oliver-0.3
- 17Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 18Carl Hayman-10.3
- 19Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 20Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 21Andrew Ellis
- 22Leon MacDonald+1.6
Portugal
- 1Andre Silva
- 2Joao Correia
- 3Reuben Cristian Spachuk
- 4Marcelo d'Orey Branco
- 5Goncalo Uva
- 6Diego Coutinho
- 7Paulo Murinelo
- 8Vasco Uva(c)
- 9Luis Pissarra
- 10Goncalo Malheiro
- 11Pedro Carvalho Cabral
- 12Diogo Mateus
- 13Miguel Portela de Morais
- 14Antonio Aguilar
- 15Pedro Leal
Replacements
- 16Rui Cordeiro
- 17Joaquim Ferreira
- 18David Penalva
- 19Tiago Girao
- 20Joao Uva
- 21Jose Pinto Neves
- 22Duarte Pinto
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 57.0% | Territory | 43.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 931m | Carry metres | 248m |
| 34 | Defenders beaten | 6 |
| 23 | Offloads | 1 |
| 125 | Passes | 62 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Tackles made | 83 |
| 7 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 40 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 55.6% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 5 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 57 | Rucks won | 54 |
| 1 | Mauls won | — |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Tries | 1 |
| 14 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.