England v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
44 – 22
22 September 2007Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 30 m
- Temperature
- 15.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2George Chuter
- 3Matt Stevens-0.0
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Martin Corry(c)-6.2
- 7Joe Worsley+4.0
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Mark Cueto+0.8
- 12Olly Barkley
- 13Mathew Tait+7.9
- 14Paul Sackey
- 15Josh Lewsey
Replacements
- 16Mark Regan+1.8
- 17Perry Freshwater
- 18Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 19Lewis Moody+1.4
- 20Peter Richards
- 21Andy Farrell
- 22Dan Hipkiss
Samoa
- 1Kas Lealamanu'a
- 2Mo Schwalger
- 3Census Johnston
- 4Joe Tekori
- 5Kane Thompson
- 6Dan Leo
- 7Semo Sititi(c)
- 8Henry Tuilagi
- 9Junior Poluleuligaga
- 10Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu
- 11Alesana Tuilagi
- 12Brian Lima
- 13Seilala Mapusua
- 14David Lemi
- 15Loki Crichton
Replacements
- 16Tani Fuga
- 17Fosi Pala'amo
- 18Justin Purdie
- 19Alfie To'oala Vaeluaga
- 20Steve So'oialo
- 21Jerry Meafou
- 22Lolo Lui
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 57.0% | Territory | 43.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 396m | Carry metres | 334m |
| 16 | Defenders beaten | 5 |
| 4 | Offloads | 6 |
| 123 | Passes | 64 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 54 | Tackles made | 78 |
| 4 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | 57.1% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 6 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Rucks won | 39 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 3 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.