Wales v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 38
29 September 2007Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes · neutral venue
What the model says about Wales v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 30 m
- Temperature
- 11.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 2Matthew Rees-8.1
- 3Chris Horsman
- 4Alun Wyn Jones-0.4
- 5Ian Evans+5.6
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Alix Popham+1.5
- 9Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Shane Williams+3.6
- 12James Hook-12.6
- 13Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Gareth Thomas(c)+5.9
Replacements
- 16T.Rhys Thomas
- 17Duncan Jones+0.8
- 18Ian Gough-3.3
- 19Michael Owen+2.1
- 20Mike Phillips
- 21Jamie Robinson
- 22Dafydd James-9.4
Fiji
- 1Graham Dewes
- 2Sunia Koto
- 3Jone Railomo Taginayaviusa
- 4Kele Leawere
- 5Ifereimi Rawaqa
- 6Semisi Saukawa
- 7Akapusi Qera
- 8Sisa Koyamaibole
- 9Moses Rauluni(c)
- 10Nicky Little
- 11Isoa Coalala Neivua
- 12Seremaia Bai
- 13Seru Rabeni
- 14Vilimoni Delasau
- 15Kameli Ratuvou
Replacements
- 16Vereniki Sauturaga Racagi
- 17Henry Qiodravu
- 18Wame Lewaravu
- 19Aca Ratuva
- 20Jone Daunivucu
- 21Norman Ligairi
- 22Sireli Bobo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 39.0% | Possession | 61.0% |
| 42.0% | Territory | 58.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 554m | Carry metres | 593m |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 6 | Offloads | 21 |
| 106 | Passes | 106 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 125 | Tackles made | 75 |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 88.9% | Lineout success | — |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 11 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 51 | Rucks won | 97 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 3 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 4 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.