New Zealand v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
79 – 15
2 October 2011Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v Canada
- Kick-off
- 02:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 13.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 14.9 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Andrew Hore(c)-5.4
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Victor Vito+4.4
- 8Kieran Read-6.0
- 9Jimmy Cowan-3.2
- 10Colin Slade+2.9
- 11Zac Guildford
- 12Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Israel Dagg-2.1
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Ben Franks-1.5
- 18Brad Thorn+3.6
- 19Anthony Boric
- 20Andrew Ellis
- 21Piri Weepu-4.9
- 22Isaia Toeava+11.9
Canada
- 1Hubert Buydens
- 2Pat Riordan(c)
- 3Jason Marshall
- 4Jebb Sinclair
- 5Jamie Cudmore
- 6Adam Kleeberger
- 7Chauncey O'Toole
- 8Aaron Carpenter
- 9Ed Fairhurst
- 10Ander Monro
- 11Phil MacKenzie
- 12Ryan Smith
- 13DTH Van Der Merwe
- 14Conor Trainor
- 15Matt Evans
Replacements
- 16Ryan Hamilton
- 17Scott Franklin
- 18Andrew Tiedemann
- 19Tyler Hotson
- 20Nanyak Dala
- 21Sean White
- 22Nathan Hirayama
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 64.0% | Possession | 36.0% |
| 65.0% | Territory | 35.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 786m | Carry metres | 198m |
| 29 | Defenders beaten | 3 |
| 201 | Passes | 107 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 68 | Tackles made | 110 |
| 3 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 71.4% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 5 |
| 45 | Scrums won | 45 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | Rucks won | 52 |
| 6 | Mauls won | — |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tries | 2 |
| 8 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.