Wales v Uruguay
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
54 – 9
20 September 2015Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Uruguay
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 12.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Paul James-6.0
- 2Scott Baldwin+2.8
- 3Samson Lee
- 4Jake Ball+1.0
- 5Luke Charteris+2.1
- 6Sam Warburton(c)
- 7Justin Tipuric+10.6
- 8James King
- 9Gareth Davies+1.8
- 10Rhys Priestland+2.3
- 11Hallam Amos
- 12Scott Williams+3.8
- 13Cory Allen
- 14Alex Cuthbert+0.2
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Ken Owens+2.8
- 17Aaron Jarvis
- 18Tomas Francis+10.5
- 19Dominic Day
- 20Dan Lydiate+1.5
- 21Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 22Lloyd Williams+5.5
- 23Matthew Morgan
Uruguay
- 1Alejo Corral
- 2Carlos Arboleya Sarazola
- 3Mario Sagario
- 4Santiago Vilaseca Hontou(c)
- 5Jorge Zerbino Stajano
- 6Juan Gaminara
- 7Matias Beer
- 8Alejandro Nieto
- 9Agustin Ormaechea
- 10Felipe Berchesi
- 11Rodrigo Silva
- 12Andrés Vilaseca
- 13Joaquin Prada
- 14Santiago Gibernau Arredondo
- 15Gaston Mieres
Replacements
- 16Germán Kessler
- 17Oscar Duran de Bertolaza
- 18Mateo Sanguinetti
- 19Franco Lamanna
- 20Agustin Alonso Dieguez
- 21Juan De Freitas
- 22Alejo Duran Parletti
- 23Francisco Bulanti
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 64.0% | Territory | 36.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 472m | Carry metres | 256m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 22 | Defenders beaten | 5 |
| 6 | Offloads | 10 |
| 139 | Passes | 78 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Tackles made | 104 |
| 96.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 5 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 22 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 83.3% |
| 25 | Lineouts won | 5 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 63 | Rucks won | 70 |
| 13 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 30 |
| 606m | Kick metres | 416m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 14 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | — |
| 7 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.