New Zealand v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 9
9 October 2015St James' Park, Newcastle · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 71 m
- Temperature
- 9.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 7 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Tony Woodcock+5.2
- 2Dane Coles-1.5
- 3Owen Franks-0.8
- 4Luke Romano+1.2
- 5Sam Whitelock+3.0
- 6Jerome Kaino+0.5
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Kieran Read(c)-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Dan Carter+1.9
- 11Waisake Naholo
- 12Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 13Conrad Smith+4.0
- 14Nehe Milner-Skudder
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Wyatt Crockett+2.5
- 18Ben Franks-1.5
- 19Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 20Liam Messam+1.5
- 21Tawera Kerr-Barlow+2.6
- 22Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 23Sonny Bill Williams+3.1
Tonga
- 1Soane Tonga'uiha
- 2Elvis Taione
- 3Halani 'Aulika
- 4Lua Lokotui
- 5Joe Tuineau
- 6Sione Kalamafoni
- 7Nili Latu(c)
- 8Viliami Ma'afu
- 9Sonatane Takulua
- 10Kurt Morath
- 11Fetu'u Vainikolo
- 12Latiume Fosita
- 13Siale Piutau
- 14Telusa Veainu
- 15Vunga Lilo
Replacements
- 16Paula Ngauamo
- 17Sona Taumalolo
- 18Sila Puafisi
- 19Steve Mafi
- 20Jack Ram
- 21Samisoni Fisilau
- 22Viliami Tahitu'a
- 23William Helu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 42.0% | Possession | 58.0% |
| 43.0% | Territory | 57.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 506m | Carry metres | 242m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 21 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 7 | Offloads | 6 |
| 171 | Passes | 139 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 153 | Tackles made | 110 |
| 91.0% | Tackle success | 84.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 21 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 70.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 11 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 72 | Rucks won | 110 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 388m | Kick metres | 355m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | — |
| 6 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.