New Zealand v Namibia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
71 – 9
6 October 2019Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
What the model says about New Zealand v Namibia
- Kick-off
- 04:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 66 m
- Temperature
- 18.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.0 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Joe Moody-0.9
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Nepo Laulala+7.1
- 4Brodie Retallick+3.7
- 5Sam Whitelock(c)+3.0
- 6Shannon Frizell+12.1
- 7Sam Cane+0.2
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Aaron Smith-4.6
- 10Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 11George Bridge
- 12Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 13Jack Goodhue
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Ben Smith-1.6
Replacements
- 16Dane Coles-1.5
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Angus Ta'avao
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Matt Todd
- 21Brad Weber
- 22TJ Perenara-8.3
- 23Rieko Ioane+3.4
Namibia
- 1Andre Rademeyer
- 2Torsten van Jaarsveld
- 3AJ de Klerk
- 4PJ van Lill
- 5Tjiuee Uanivi
- 6Prince ǃGaoseb
- 7Thomasau Forbes
- 8Janco Venter
- 9Damian Stevens
- 10Helarius Kisting
- 11JC Greyling
- 12Johan Deysel(c)
- 13Justin Newman
- 14Lesley Klim
- 15Johan Tromp
Replacements
- 16Obert Nortje
- 17Nelius Theron
- 18Aranos Coetzee
- 19Johan Retief
- 20Adriaan Booysen
- 21Eugene Jantjies
- 22Darryl De La Harpe
- 23Janry du Toit
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 54.0% | Possession | 46.0% |
| 57.0% | Territory | 43.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 793m | Carry metres | 302m |
| 24 | Clean breaks | 13 |
| 44 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 24 | Offloads | 4 |
| 254 | Passes | 147 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 124 | Tackles made | 160 |
| 89.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 44 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 6 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 9 | Scrums won | — |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Rucks won | 91 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 524m | Kick metres | 223m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 12 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tries | — |
| 8 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.