Wales v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 26
22 February 2003Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v England
- Kick-off
- 17:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 5.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 26 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Jonathan Humphreys(c)
- 3Ben Evans
- 4Robert Sidoli
- 5Steve Williams
- 6Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Gavin Thomas
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 11Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 12Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Rhys Williams
- 15Kevin Morgan+4.7
Replacements
- 16Gareth Williams
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Gareth Llewellyn
- 19Colin Charvis-5.3
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Iestyn Harris
- 22Matthew Watkins
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Robbie Morris
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Dan Luger-5.9
- 15Jason Robinson+5.5
Replacements
- 16Mark Regan+1.8
- 17Mike Worsley
- 18Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 19Joe Worsley+4.0
- 20Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 21Phil Christophers
- 22James Simpson-Daniel
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 2 |
| — | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.