Wales v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 25
22 March 2003Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 6.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Jonathan Humphreys(c)
- 3Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 4Gareth Llewellyn
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Colin Charvis-5.3
- 7Martyn Williams+5.7
- 8Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Gareth Thomas+5.9
- 12Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Mark Jones-1.6
- 15Rhys Williams
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Martyn Madden
- 18Steve Williams
- 19Gavin Thomas
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Iestyn Harris
- 22Matthew Watkins
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Shane Byrne
- 3John Hayes
- 4Leo Cullen+1.0
- 5Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 6Alan Quinlan
- 7Keith Gleeson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10David Humphreys
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Justin Bishop
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Frank Sheahan+3.9
- 17Justin Fitzpatrick-4.2
- 18Donncha O'Callaghan
- 19Eric Miller-2.2
- 20Guy Easterby
- 21Ronan O'Gara
- 22John Kelly
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.