New Zealand v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
53 – 37
2 November 2003Accor Stadium, Sydney · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Wales
- Kick-off
- 09:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 13.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 7.5 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Dave Hewett
- 2Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Reuben Thorne(c)+4.5
- 7Richie McCaw+1.0
- 8Jerry Collins
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 11Joe Rokocoko-9.0
- 12Aaron Mauger-5.1
- 13Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Mark Hammett
- 17Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 18Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 19Marty Holah-0.8
- 20Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 21Dan Carter+1.9
- 22Ma'a Nonu+0.9
Wales
- 1Iestyn Thomas
- 2Robin McBryde+4.3
- 3Adam Jones-6.2
- 4Brent Cockbain+16.8
- 5Robert Sidoli
- 6Jonathan Thomas+2.2
- 7Colin Charvis(c)-5.3
- 8Alix Popham+1.5
- 9Gareth Cooper+7.5
- 10Stephen Jones+0.2
- 11Tom Shanklin+12.6
- 12Sonny Parker
- 13Mark Taylor+1.1
- 14Shane Williams+3.6
- 15Garan Evans
Replacements
- 16Mefin Davies
- 17Gethin Jenkins+2.5
- 18Chris Wyatt-10.8
- 19Dafydd Jones-3.1
- 20Dwayne Peel-4.5
- 21Ceri Sweeney+13.5
- 22Gareth Thomas+5.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0% | Possession | 33.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 821m | Carry metres | 542m |
| 25 | Clean breaks | 19 |
| 39 | Defenders beaten | 24 |
| 25 | Offloads | 13 |
| 186 | Passes | 152 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | Tackles made | 102 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 72.0% |
| 24 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 39 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 83.3% | Lineout success | 90.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 9 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | Rucks won | 73 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 808m | Kick metres | 889m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 4 |
| 5 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.