Italy v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
9 – 50
15 February 2004Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v England
- Kick-off
- 14:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 7.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami+0.7
- 6Andrea de Rossi(c)+3.9
- 7Aaron Persico
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Rima Wakarua-Noema
- 11Denis Dallan-0.8
- 12Manuel Dallan
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 14Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 15Andrea Masi-5.0
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 18Carlo Checchinato
- 19Silvio Orlando
- 20Simon Picone+3.8
- 21Roland de Marigny
- 22Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
England
- 1Trevor Woodman-0.3
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 5Ben Kay+9.1
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Richard Hill
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio(c)+8.7
- 9Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 10Paul Grayson+7.3
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Jason Robinson+5.5
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Josh Lewsey
- 15Iain Balshaw+8.5
Replacements
- 16Mark Regan+1.8
- 17Jason Leonard
- 18Simon Shaw-2.6
- 19Chris Jones
- 20Matt Dawson
- 21Olly Barkley
- 22Henry Paul
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 7 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.