Italy v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
16 – 31
11 February 2006Stadio Flaminio, Rome
What the model says about Italy v England
- Kick-off
- 16:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 5.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 33 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Salvatore Perugini+7.1
- 2Fabio Ongaro+2.4
- 3Carlos Nieto+1.3
- 4Santiago Dellape-3.2
- 5Marco Bortolami(c)+0.7
- 6Josh Sole
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Sergio Parisse-0.9
- 9Paul Griffen
- 10Ramiro Pez+2.8
- 11Ludovico Nitoglia
- 12Mirco Bergamasco-4.5
- 13Gonzalo Canale
- 14Pablo Canavosio+6.1
- 15Cristian Stoica+7.0
Replacements
- 16Carlo Festuccia+0.8
- 17Andrea Lo Cicero Vaina+4.8
- 18Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 19Carlo Antonio del Fava+0.8
- 20Aaron Persico
- 21Simon Picone+3.8
- 22Rima Wakarua-Noema
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Steve Thompson+3.2
- 3Matt Stevens-0.0
- 4Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Martin Corry(c)-6.2
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Charlie Hodgson-2.4
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Mike Tindall+3.5
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Tom Voyce
Replacements
- 16Lee Mears+2.3
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Simon Shaw-2.6
- 19Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 20Matt Dawson
- 21Andy Goode
- 22James Simpson-Daniel
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.