England v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 28
18 March 2006Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 17:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 2.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Andrew Sheridan+1.2
- 2Lee Mears+2.3
- 3Julian White-1.4
- 4Steve Borthwick-11.3
- 5Simon Shaw-2.6
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Martin Corry(c)-6.2
- 9Harry Ellis-3.1
- 10Andy Goode
- 11Ben Cohen
- 12Stuart Abbott
- 13Jamie Noon-4.5
- 14Mark Cueto+0.8
- 15Tom Voyce
Replacements
- 16Steve Thompson+3.2
- 17Perry Freshwater
- 18Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 19Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 20Matt Dawson
- 21Dave Walder
- 22Mike Tindall+3.5
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Jerry Flannery+3.4
- 3John Hayes
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Simon Easterby-7.8
- 7David Wallace-1.6
- 8Denis Leamy+5.0
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10Ronan O'Gara
- 11Andrew Trimble+3.5
- 12Gordon D'Arcy-0.8
- 13Brian O'Driscoll(c)-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Geordan Murphy-2.5
Replacements
- 16Rory Best
- 17Simon Best+5.9
- 18Donncha O'Callaghan
- 19Johnny O'Connor
- 20Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 21David Humphreys
- 22Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Discipline
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.